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The tree of blobs of a species network shows only the tree-like aspects of relationships of taxa on a network, omitting information on network substructures where hybridization or other types of lateral transfer of genetic information occur. By isolating such regions of a network, inference of the tree of blobs can serve as a starting point for a more detailed investigation, or indicate the limit of what may be inferrable without additional assumptions. Building on our theoretical work on the identifiability of the tree of blobs from gene quartet distributions under the Network Multispecies Coalescent model, we develop an algorithm, TINNiK, for statistically consistent tree of blobs inference. We provide examples of its application to both simulated and empirical datasets, utilizing an implementation in the MSCquartets 2.0 R package. 

Abstract This work is a direct continuation of McKinney et al., who attempted to create a planet with Earth-like temperatures and physical properties but with precipitation and circulation patterns that were Titan-like. McKinney et al. attempted to do so by changing only three basic planetary parameters: the ratio of dry land to ocean on the surface, the rotation period, and the volatility of the condensable. Each of these parameters is varied from an Earth-like value to a Titan-like one to analyze the climate transition between these two planetary archetypes. In this work, we expand on McKinney et al. by including a seasonal cycle and increasing the number of diagnostic criteria for determining Titan-like dynamics. The simulations use Earth-like obliquity and an Earth-like solar constant. We find that the presence of a dry land strip extending to at least 55°N/S is most effective at creating Titan-like climatic conditions on an otherwise Earth-like planet, such as high-latitude summer precipitation maxima and a low-humidity equator. In contrast, slow rotation and high atmospheric vapor abundance have minimal climatic impacts despite being characteristic features of Titan. Our experiments show that it is not difficult to produce distinctly Titan-like features in an Earth-like GCM with minimal changes to its fundamental parameters. This suggests that Earth-like planets could have a large range of global climate states throughout their history just through changes in topography. Similarly, Titan may have experienced more Earth-like climate states in periods where its tropics were wetter. 

Abstract We investigate how climate, clouds, and convection change as the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is varied by altering the saturation vapor pressure (SVP) by a constant in a one-dimensional climate model. We identify four effects of altering SVP on clouds in an Earthlike climate with distinct layers of low and high clouds. First, the anvils of high clouds get higher as SVP is increased (and vice versa) because they are bound by radiative constraints to occur at a lower temperature. The vapor pressure path above the cold anvils does not change in Earthlike climates. Second, low clouds get lower as SVP increases (and vice versa) because they are coupled to a convective boundary layer (CBL) that shallows primarily from an increase in the tropospheric static stability. The third and fourth effects follow from the first two, namely, that single-layer cloud states exist both in vapor-poor states with a merged cloud deck and vapor-rich states with an elevated cloud deck. We identify two cloud instability parameters that determine the transitions between single- and double-layer cloud regimes. Qualitatively, sufficiently vapor-poor states have a deep, diffusive layer that overlaps with a weaker convective layer (topping out at the tropopause) that cannot maintain low relative humidity in the midtroposphere through the drying of descending air, thus causing the cloud layers to merge. Sufficiently vapor-rich states lose their low clouds as the shallowing CBL drops below the lifting condensation level. 

Abstract How far the Hadley circulation’s ascending branch extends into the summer hemisphere is a fundamental but incompletely understood characteristic of Earth’s climate. Here, we present a predictive, analytical theory for this ascending edge latitude based on the extent of supercritical forcing. Supercriticality sets the minimum extent of a large-scale circulation based on the angular momentum and absolute vorticity distributions of the hypothetical state were the circulation absent. We explicitly simulate this latitude-by-latitude radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) state. Its depth-averaged temperature profile is suitably captured by a simple analytical approximation that increases linearly with sin φ , where φ is latitude, from the winter to the summer pole. This, in turn, yields a one-third power-law scaling of the supercritical forcing extent with the thermal Rossby number. In moist and dry idealized GCM simulations under solsticial forcing performed with a wide range of planetary rotation rates, the ascending edge latitudes largely behave according to this scaling. 

Abstract Arctic sea ice melting processes in summer due to internal atmospheric variability have recently received considerable attention. A regional barotropic atmospheric process over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean in summer (June–August), featuring either a year-to-year change or a low-frequency trend toward geopotential height rise, has been identified as an essential contributor to September sea ice loss, in both observations and the CESM1 Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) of simulations. This local melting is further found to be sensitive to remote sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean. Here, we utilize five available large “initial condition” Earth system model ensembles and 31 CMIP5 models’ preindustrial control simulations to show that the same atmospheric process, resembling the observed one and the one found in the CESM-LE, also dominates internal sea ice variability in summer on interannual to interdecadal time scales in preindustrial, historical, and future scenarios, regardless of the modeling environment. However, all models exhibit limitations in replicating the magnitude of the observed local atmosphere–sea ice coupling and its sensitivity to remote tropical SST variability in the past four decades. These biases call for caution in the interpretation of existing models’ simulations and fresh thinking about models’ credibility in simulating interactions of sea ice variability with the Arctic and global climate systems. Further efforts toward identifying the causes of these model limitations may provide implications for alleviating the biases and improving interannual- and decadal-time-scale sea ice prediction and future sea ice projection. 

Abstract In the past 40 years, the global annual mean surface temperature has experienced a nonuniform warming, differing from the spatially uniform warming simulated by the forced responses of large multimodel ensembles to anthropogenic forcing. Rather, it exhibits significant asymmetry between the Arctic and Antarctic, with intermittent and spatially varying warming trends along the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes and a slight cooling in the tropical eastern Pacific. In particular, this “wavy” pattern of temperature changes over the NH midlatitudes features strong cooling over Eurasia in boreal winter. Here, we show that these nonuniform features of surface temperature changes are likely tied together by tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), via a global atmospheric teleconnection. Using six reanalyses, we find that this teleconnection can be consistently obtained as a leading circulation mode in the past century. This tropically driven teleconnection is associated with a Pacific SST pattern resembling the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), and hereafter referred to as the IPO-related bipolar teleconnection (IPO-BT). Further, two paleo-reanalysis reconstruction datasets show that the IPO-BT is a robust recurrent mode over the past 400 and 2000 years. The IPO-BT mode may thus serve as an important internal mode that regulates high-latitude climate variability on multidecadal time scales, favoring a warming (cooling) episode in the Arctic accompanied by cooling (warming) over Eurasia and the Southern Ocean (SO). Thus, the spatial nonuniformity of recent surface temperature trends may be partially explained by the enhanced appearance of the IPO-BT mode by a transition of the IPO toward a cooling phase in the eastern Pacific in the past decades. 

Abstract Weak-temperature-gradient influences from the tropics and quasigeostrophic influences from the extratropics plausibly constrain the subtropical-mean static stability in terrestrial atmospheres. Because mean descent acting on this static stability is a leading-order term in the thermodynamic balance, a state-invariant static stability would impose constraints on the Hadley cells, which this paper explores in simulations of varying planetary rotation rate. If downdraft-averaged effective heating (the sum of diabatic heating and eddy heat flux convergence) too is invariant, so must be vertical velocity—an “omega governor.” In that case, the Hadley circulation overturning strength and downdraft width must scale identically—the cell can strengthen only by widening or weaken only by narrowing. Semiempirical scalings demonstrate that subtropical eddy heat flux convergence weakens with rotation rate (scales positively) while diabatic heating strengthens (scales negatively), compensating one another if they are of similar magnitude. Simulations in two idealized, dry GCMs with a wide range of planetary rotation rates exhibit nearly unchanging downdraft-averaged static stability, effective heating, and vertical velocity, as well as nearly identical scalings of the Hadley cell downdraft width and strength. In one, eddy stresses set this scaling directly (the Rossby number remains small); in the other, eddy stress and bulk Rossby number changes compensate to yield the same, ~Ω^−1/3scaling. The consistency of this power law for cell width and strength variations may indicate a common driver, and we speculate that Ekman pumping could be the mechanism responsible for this behavior. Diabatic heating in an idealized aquaplanet GCM is an order of magnitude larger than in dry GCMs and reanalyses, and while the subtropical static stability is insensitive to rotation rate, the effective heating and vertical velocity are not.